Australian A League · resolved market
Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4e6b63221bc2f92d426ffa608f76f49cb84adc3d6e8d86d7825fe04ead59ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,739
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,739 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6794…c10dbacked No | 0c | 40,373$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 62c | 2,193$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,369.37 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 33c | 2,026$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.04 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 39c | 1,726$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.33 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed No | 71c | 646.41$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 9c | 557.75$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 35c | 521.02$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.66 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed No | 25c | 500$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.69 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 476.86$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.17 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked No | 65c | 464.1$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 52c | 422.65$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.98 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4935…4662backed Yes | 24c | 405.42$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.17 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 12c | 334$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 70c | 310$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…1ebbbacked Yes | 37c | 269.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…a17cbacked Yes | 37c | 269.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 62c | 253.73$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.31 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 78c | 185$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 69 | 69.6%48 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…b312backed Yes | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 34c | 158.06$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 65c | 154.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.36 | 90 | 65.6%59 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd47…8277backed Yes | 79c | 152.11$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 63c | 152.1$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…8132backed Yes | 28c | 143.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 31c | 125.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…14bfbacked No | 30c | 97.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4f…243cbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 38c | 81.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.83 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45c3…42f9backed No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 67c | 62.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.31 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7f…0a55backed No | 65c | 54.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4b…c2bcbacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +90%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 60c | 50.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8747…8b5dbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 74cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46a…e9dbbacked Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…3b67backed Yes | 39c | 43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 58c | 38.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bd…0da6backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 71cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…f598backed No | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 64c | 25.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed No | 62c | 21.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…abf5backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 62c | 17.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-19?this page
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-12-19?No won
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.