Australian A League · resolved market
Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-12-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae14007c329c005b255d9bcb30cfdb4a645a5e8c009bfdece445bc09876d4896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,716
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 37c | 29,375$10,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,875.24 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 37c | 20,000$7,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,399.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed No | 63c | 17,631$11,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,523.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 63c | 15,130$9,531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,599.55 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 63c | 10,310$6,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,792.99 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 62c | 9,287$5,777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,509.75 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 37c | 2,703$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad1b…5da0backed Yes | 36c | 1,371$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…2874backed Yes | 37c | 1,350$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 1,032$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.45 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 51c | 970.85$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.15 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0c3dbacked No | 63c | 824.99$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…0c26backed Yes | 37c | 818.32$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked No | 62c | 800$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde1…dfc0backed No | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 64c | 627.27$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.94 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 63c | 516$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb0…51d5backed Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 63c | 500$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…9561backed No | 63c | 500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 40c | 433.88$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.55 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Yes | 71c | 422.25$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a83…195bbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Yes | 38c | 291.35$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…eca0backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed Yes | 39c | 228.95$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 44c | 215.91$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…b312backed Yes | 36c | 178.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf54a…e25dbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 37cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 38c | 130.26$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Yes | 39c | 125$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 64c | 120.31$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f6…8132backed Yes | 36c | 111.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +79%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 65c | 99.24$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 38c | 89$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 41c | 84.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…b6aebacked No | 43c | 75.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe406…4cc1backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 64c | 63.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf9…1abfbacked Yes | 37c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +79%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +40%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…ef77backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 46c | 49.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 63c | 49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 37c | 42.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e9…804fbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 38c | 31.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Yes | 36c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed No | 65c | 30.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4e…9b6fbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed Yes | 72c | 25.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 66c | 25.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6489…71ebbacked Yes | 68c | 24.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdddb…d6a4backed No | 64c | 19.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 65c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ff…db1dbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brisbane Roar FC win on 2025-12-19?this page
- Will Macarthur FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2025-12-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.