Fifa International · resolved market
Will the match between Scotland and Portugal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x924b79c872264e16fef90e689522849f51afd56a008f80c4f18a7467677dc5cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 61c | 1,809$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.3 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 33c | 1,529$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 21c | 451.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.6 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 49c | 406.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Yes | 50c | 306$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x905f…ad6bbacked No | 50c | 306$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 293.7$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.05 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…642cbacked Yes | 22c | 251.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +350%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 72c | 243$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35dd…063bbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…22f7backed Yes | 23c | 147.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 143$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 45c | 131.63$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.5 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bc…2c1cbacked No | 80c | 130.41$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…0b92backed No | 80c | 127.91$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed42…7718backed No | 80c | 125.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb233…e8ebbacked No | 79c | 121.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8252…e65cbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…14cbbacked No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…16b6backed No | 79c | 76.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0335…ce8cbacked No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf082…822cbacked No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96a5…7201backed No | 79c | 74.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6b…bb64backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x851b…1b79backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Scotland and Portugal end in a draw?this page
- Will Portugal beat Scotland?No won
- Will Scotland beat Portugal?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.