Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x926509dda42859522b0389d5ad301be1e20059caedd5cfd45b99a567d6717fe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 27c | 817.56$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.94 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 481.9$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.77 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 278.67$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 76c | 277.99$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 261.14$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 259.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 259.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 210.79$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 29c | 210.4$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.81 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 75c | 203.5$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.22 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 198.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 193.19$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.13 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 22c | 153.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 27c | 144.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 133.23$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x696f…8f04backed Yes | 21c | 119.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 75c | 116.56$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 19c | 116.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 114.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.17 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 77c | 103.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 32c | 95.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 95.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 93.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 57c | 79.05$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 25c | 71.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 72c | 67.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 34c | 67.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 57.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 55.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 28c | 54.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 26c | 54.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 77c | 51.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 26c | 50.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 33c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 70c | 46.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…8d83backed No | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 72c | 44.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 25c | 41.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 25c | 40.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 69c | 40.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…cc23backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 34c | 38.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 77c | 38.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 70c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 58c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 68c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 70c | 31.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 65c | 25.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 25.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 78c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 66c | 22.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 58c | 21.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 71c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…db61backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 58c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1799…3ca9backed No | 76c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 76c | 16.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…5865backed No | 76c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 69 | 81.2%56 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 15.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…c843backed No | 78c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 73cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.