TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,478

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc556…9720backed Yes69c521.68$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.5125549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0941…b254backed No30c504.39$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5911935.3%42 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes53c438.01$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.954,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No43c384.9$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.461,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5757…9e19backed No37c302.7$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3845162.1%280 W · 171 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No17c302.37$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1453925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed Yes35c285.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.4670741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes59c205.12$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.996,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c203.5$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.385,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes55c196.33$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3838138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes43c191.27$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.5117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No21c165$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c155.78$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0610,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No13c155.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.725,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes65c148.5$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.9465749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No47c137.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.051,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes36c130$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.151,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No55c126.78$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.111,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes52c126.02$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.4986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ef0…62e0backed No29c123.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8919052.1%99 W · 91 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes75c123.74$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2461365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c121.94$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.725,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc7…6c9abacked Yes48c119.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.797647.4%36 W · 40 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe985…8cc8backed No45c112.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.078325.3%21 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No66c109.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7725049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No27c107.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…2013backed No42c107.6$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5831454.1%170 W · 144 L+31.3wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9f7f…2e64backed No71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.42962.1%18 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No40c98.54$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xb8a6…ff0bbacked No33c98.13$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.032070%14 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No34c96.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6867158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c94.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.541,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No14c94.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.512,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No48c87.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.211,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes43c81.54$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.2956434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No28c78.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.132,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No27c74.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.961,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb55…ff0fbacked No30c72.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4815529%45 W · 110 L-9.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff06…c7d5backed No56c70.95$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4211258.9%66 W · 46 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes58c69.72$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.144536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes60c65.16$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.362,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fe…e62abacked Yes77c64.99$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2223677.1%182 W · 54 L+23.3wins+0.10per pick67cpaid+16.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes57c60.17$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…40c0backed No49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4680050.1%401 W · 399 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No40c59.24$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6231050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes61c59.11$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.912,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes54c58.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.322,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes51c55.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.359,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x463d…abb2backed No50c54.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.254139%16 W · 25 L-7.3wins-0.18per pick57cpaid-28.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No43c53.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.185,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes65c52.32$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4326344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes53c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes38c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3147538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…3268backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-30.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes40c45.45$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3820358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No40c44.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.561,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4204…165abacked No51c43.85$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.365455.6%30 W · 24 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-0.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes32c40.83$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7324434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No35c40.24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.911,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6192…48efbacked Yes28c39.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.518856.8%50 W · 38 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4014…8c3fbacked Yes78c38.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick74cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes44c37.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.957,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0410850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No47c35.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7922853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No67c35.09$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5665965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7447866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes29c34.54$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.388,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No33c33.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.242,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4125…868cbacked No45c32.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.478240.2%33 W · 49 L-7.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xedba…002dbacked No70c31.48$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.189679.2%76 W · 20 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No63c30.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.534,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d46…f816backed No47c30.32$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.255851.7%30 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes53c30$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.128649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c7…860ebacked No49c29.22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3214954.4%81 W · 68 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6251…8f7bbacked No50c28.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.341030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-46%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.671464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No67c27.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6257264.5%369 W · 203 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c27.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.698565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7d…fd73backed No56c26.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156648.5%32 W · 34 L-7.0wins-0.11per pick59cpaid-18.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No54c26.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9941460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No52c24.62$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.891861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes50c22.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0248149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccd0…7482backed Yes73c21.8$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.81258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbe…f8b0backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86358.7%37 W · 26 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-10.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1064960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.843842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No65c19$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.359573.7%70 W · 25 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes68c18.75$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9218337.7%69 W · 114 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes56c18.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1733139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa46…4a23backed No65c18.46$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick70cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8c0…1191backed Yes79c18$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.782462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No70c17.91$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.542,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No64c17.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.212,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa581…b552backed Yes80c16.89$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.381968.4%13 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No67c16.68$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1812174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No71c16.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6730168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…743abacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.