Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44896b2abf5eccec1eabef7440aaac2284142491a593af2b0baf2d8986d7818
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 847.12$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 10c | 680.64$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 38c | 395.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 334.57$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.97 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 21c | 306.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.05 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 43c | 296.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.76 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 249.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 236.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 10c | 210.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 166.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes | 8c | 156.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 141.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 114.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 19c | 104.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc5…d713backed Yes | 18c | 101.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 13c | 94.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 46c | 88.32$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 87.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 78.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 14c | 76.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 61c | 62.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.46 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 77c | 53.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 79c | 48.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 59c | 44.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 48c | 43.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 58c | 39.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked No | 75c | 36.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…d97cbacked Yes | 64c | 33.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 74c | 30.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 60c | 29.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 28.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe801…764fbacked No | 73c | 25.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 58c | 25.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 43c | 24.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 63c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 76c | 19.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 79c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 80c | 16.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 79c | 15.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 14.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.