MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x928eabb60cd8848fccaab042f93c710e1f0adf8983f4dc5573b53cbd2ca4d5d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Over | 48c | 62,643$30,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,000 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72d8…5213backed Under | 53c | 40,000$21,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,800 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +9.2wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 36,981$17,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,381.27 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Under | 52c | 20,900$10,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,032 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 17,227$9,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,220.66 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 52c | 11,930$6,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,682.49 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 8,242$4,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,956.16 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 54c | 2,352$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.93 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Under | 53c | 1,938$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$911.46 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 52c | 1,607$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.23 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 1,555$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.85 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Over | 40c | 987.1$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.84 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 942.16$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 48c | 792.69$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.49 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…ffcabacked Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 47c | 420$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 400.25$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.59 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 48c | 333.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 316$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 48c | 313$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Over | 48c | 241.5$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.92 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Over | 43c | 218.9$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.98 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…1d45backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 191.06$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.93 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 15c | 168.7$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 54c | 162.96$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.96 | 151 | 47%71 W · 80 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…1647backed Over | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…3c67backed Under | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 142.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 31c | 126.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 47c | 116.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e6f…cb64backed Over | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…ed83backed Under | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8337…1b5bbacked Over | 46c | 97.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 45c | 96.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.44 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…30febacked Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b07…5f54backed Over | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 45c | 84.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 36c | 83.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 52c | 80.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 48c | 79.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Over | 48c | 77.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 276 | 46.7%129 W · 147 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Over | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2725…e7d1backed Over | 46c | 60.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 358 | 49.4%177 W · 181 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…b1a1backed Under | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 21c | 55.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 47c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cf…6659backed Over | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 50c | 44.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 42.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 42.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b8…2350backed Over | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 49c | 41.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 147 | 53.1%78 W · 69 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe0…05b5backed Over | 44c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.32per pick | 51cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x506e…e41bbacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97c…14edbacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeae3…371fbacked Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bac…e59dbacked Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Under | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2c…be40backed Over | 43c | 28.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fd82backed Under | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.