MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec302123d4c16a53fa019a722df7fa6cac5f0f5a6bc20d59958c2603a6d6493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Milwaukee Brewers, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 11,332$7,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,116.95 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 7,058$4,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.08 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 5,836$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.62 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…2f33backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 4,881$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.17 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 4,614$1,525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.54 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…e3d0backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 1,377$812 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.4 | 323 | 51.7%167 W · 156 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 43c | 1,325$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.21 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 1,309$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.54 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 899.99$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 252 | 49.2%124 W · 128 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 779.56$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.78 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 690.82$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.87 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 608.4$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.45 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 585.66$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.12 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 482.07$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.65 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 402.13$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 365.85$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 300$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 255$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 240.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 39%64 W · 100 L | -12.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51f4…3e21backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 213$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 250 | 34.8%87 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x974d…bd82backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 195.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 165$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 144.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 144$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8113…22cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 141.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 133.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 104$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 38c | 98.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 95.25$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 85.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 56.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 51.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 50.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…a96abacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 40.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x226a…258abacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Milwaukee Brewers | 44c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 29.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 42c | 26.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…2a56backed Milwaukee Brewers | 40c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 20.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24a1…32f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 207 | 45.9%95 W · 112 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c99…9729backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Cleveland Guardians | 72c | 17.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Cleveland Guardians | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 61c | 16.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.