Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x929106623c6e6ba48b9e36dfa03b863e46a59b58eb79c81d07b7b59fe19164c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,009
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 33c | 4,523$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,492.55 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 3,436$2,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.44 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed Under | 77c | 1,850$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.84 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 34c | 1,272$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.67 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 66c | 518.21$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.4 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 65c | 311.54$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.04 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 33c | 301.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5325…c0b5backed Under | 67c | 216.54$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 33c | 211.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 65c | 184.59$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 69c | 157.69$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 30c | 155$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 70c | 154.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.77 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 151.8$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Under | 67c | 120.91$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 94.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 67c | 92.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.67 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Under | 67c | 84.3$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 76c | 83.16$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 32c | 70.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 36c | 70.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d84…6df0backed Under | 69c | 57.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec18…8eb4backed Under | 67c | 50.31$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 61c | 47.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 33c | 45.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cb…2208backed Under | 67c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…b84abacked Under | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d3…73f8backed Under | 67c | 17.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Under | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked Under | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5this page
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.