Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b15a19b6b558f1fff8b37ebed5a108b0b554e104a48eb8281aad05369bbc92d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 55c | 4,115$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.63 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 2,007$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 45c | 1,552$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.96 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 56c | 1,398$783 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.16 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 1,288$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$576.63 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…8c66backed Under | 45c | 1,271$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 46cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x222c…0772backed Under | 45c | 1,271$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 44c | 779.25$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.87 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 45c | 607.5$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.42 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Over | 53c | 471.89$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 419.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.9 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 40c | 400$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 57c | 240.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.72 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Over | 62c | 210.09$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.09 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 202.31$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 55c | 181.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…2392backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfad6…666fbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 53c | 94.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 92.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 44c | 91.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 53c | 79.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a88…832dbacked Under | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 56c | 44.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 31c | 35.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 55c | 33.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…1094backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5this page
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.