CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs kONO.ECF (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9292e05d9dce9a69526facfe139a8fb64b5aac3019113be40861e61ed8f63c38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ARCREDof ARCRED, kONO.ECF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac75…1319backed ARCRED | 60c | 11,998$7,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,799.24 | 164 | 49.4%81 W · 83 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked kONO.ECF | 32c | 9,659$3,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,072.02 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db4…d69bbacked ARCRED | 55c | 7,228$3,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,252.41 | 753 | 56.8%428 W · 325 L | +48.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea2…12d9backed kONO.ECF | 2c | 6,547$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa340…409bbacked kONO.ECF | 40c | 4,831$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8918…f4e4backed kONO.ECF | 1c | 3,020$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked kONO.ECF | 40c | 2,750$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 205 | 39.5%81 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea3b…fafdbacked kONO.ECF | 20c | 2,016$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed ARCRED | 60c | 1,880$1,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.05 | 211 | 56.9%120 W · 91 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked kONO.ECF | 41c | 1,447$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.36 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked kONO.ECF | 40c | 1,240$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed ARCRED | 62c | 1,214$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.45 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b59…3aa6backed ARCRED | 63c | 1,140$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.86 | 853 | 58.3%497 W · 356 L | +60.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed kONO.ECF | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe8…3549backed ARCRED | 59c | 963.41$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed kONO.ECF | 20c | 933.75$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 388 | 44.6%173 W · 215 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed kONO.ECF | 40c | 535$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed kONO.ECF | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked kONO.ECF | 40c | 375$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed kONO.ECF | 52c | 268.18$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.24 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed kONO.ECF | 40c | 247.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67cc…942fbacked kONO.ECF | 37c | 237.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…fba6backed kONO.ECF | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…44c3backed kONO.ECF | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed kONO.ECF | 24c | 195.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 291 | 28.5%83 W · 208 L | -30.2wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b55…de63backed kONO.ECF | 12c | 186.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0250…278ebacked ARCRED | 76c | 165.88$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed kONO.ECF | 41c | 163.41$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed ARCRED | 61c | 155$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…47a5backed kONO.ECF | 7c | 154.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked kONO.ECF | 42c | 149.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f40…a518backed kONO.ECF | 9c | 148.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f2…0546backed kONO.ECF | 45c | 135.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e14…8d33backed kONO.ECF | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed kONO.ECF | 31c | 96.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…ef18backed ARCRED | 66c | 96.05$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked ARCRED | 54c | 86.12$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 362 | 53.3%193 W · 169 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed kONO.ECF | 42c | 77.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 293 | 50.2%147 W · 146 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed kONO.ECF | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked kONO.ECF | 55c | 73.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed kONO.ECF | 45c | 72.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 157 | 38.2%60 W · 97 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe646…7f8ebacked kONO.ECF | 27c | 69.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed kONO.ECF | 40c | 65.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…ee5abacked ARCRED | 63c | 63.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 89 | 74.2%66 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c6b…a5d5backed kONO.ECF | 44c | 60.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e7…e762backed kONO.ECF | 39c | 58.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8f40backed kONO.ECF | 45c | 52.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9a…becbbacked kONO.ECF | 47c | 48.63$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed ARCRED | 64c | 46.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…8d4bbacked kONO.ECF | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c1…275ebacked kONO.ECF | 45c | 40.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed kONO.ECF | 39c | 35.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…3cfcbacked ARCRED | 57c | 34.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed ARCRED | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 329 | 51.7%170 W · 159 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed kONO.ECF | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed ARCRED | 77c | 28.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 698 | 63%440 W · 258 L | +65.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x44d8…111ebacked ARCRED | 76c | 26.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed ARCRED | 57c | 26.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed ARCRED | 77c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd746…4266backed kONO.ECF | 42c | 23.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…4ac6backed ARCRED | 78c | 23.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced8…221ebacked ARCRED | 58c | 19.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 700 | 38.9%272 W · 428 L | -29.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb6…735cbacked ARCRED | 75c | 17.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs kONO.ECF (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs kONO.ECF - Map 2 WinnerkONO.ECF won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.