Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d9d5f817216855303152d3aae3920c2d58733071151c20f2bd9d00cec751d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 17c | 1,175$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 679$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.35 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 19c | 335.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.03 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 43c | 271.35$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…cf5bbacked Over | 69c | 175.74$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 77c | 127.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 18c | 125$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 23c | 120.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1160…b054backed Over | 67c | 99.09$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 16c | 84.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.77 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b02…ae87backed Over | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Under | 70c | 34.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.