Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9802dbf47f99f2e6f7ecb0fd2565794195daa05b5e2718491281867634f28ab3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 59c | 2,966$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,216.43 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 2,584$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.67 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 41c | 2,402$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.74 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 1,799$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.52 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 57c | 888$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.84 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Under | 43c | 877$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 58c | 750$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 600.21$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.21 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 57c | 354.18$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.3 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 58c | 353.45$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.45 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 59c | 253.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.8 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 41c | 180$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 167.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 58c | 86.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Over | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Under | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 63c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 42c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 76c | 24.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC: O/U 4.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.