Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92df119addc3f1a3ba6a03f9c5ddae5aa0c51b56b9e07acca3a839d7e1dbffd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 10c | 33,000$3,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 9c | 4,453$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.73 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 10c | 2,500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 27c | 1,755$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.33 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 1,468$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.46 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 13c | 964.85$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.49 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +18.3wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 18c | 945.05$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.27 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 10c | 439.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 390$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 162 | 42%68 W · 94 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 17c | 365.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 8c | 317.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Yes | 27c | 165.47$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 9c | 136.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40ef…10ebbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 229 | 27.5%63 W · 166 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Metz win on 2025-09-21?this page
- Will AS Monaco FC vs. FC Metz end in a draw?No won
- Will AS Monaco FC win on 2025-09-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.