Euroleague · resolved market
Virtus Bologna vs. Olimpia Milano
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x932f81eaaf11e6e84fc19c68eb9343f5c23c24a58794a688c499221113799ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Virtus Bolognaof Virtus Bologna, Olimpia Milano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e92…c03fbacked Virtus Bologna | 42c | 2,360$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 32cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Olimpia Milano | 54c | 1,956$1,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.87 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Olimpia Milano | 61c | 1,778$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.39per pick | 55cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Olimpia Milano | 57c | 1,243$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.88 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Virtus Bologna | 45c | 1,230$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.1 | 148 | 47.3%70 W · 78 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Olimpia Milano | 53c | 1,148$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.64 | 275 | 57.5%158 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e33…afb3backed Virtus Bologna | 44c | 1,137$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.83 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Olimpia Milano | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Olimpia Milano | 51c | 975.95$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Virtus Bologna | 44c | 722$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.57 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bb17backed Olimpia Milano | 50c | 708$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Olimpia Milano | 54c | 620.3$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.52 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Virtus Bologna | 42c | 452.38$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +31%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Virtus Bologna | 61c | 367$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.34 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Virtus Bologna | 46c | 356$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.24 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Virtus Bologna | 48c | 354.47$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.23 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Virtus Bologna | 47c | 343$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.79 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Virtus Bologna | 50c | 296.27$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.24 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Virtus Bologna | 47c | 280$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Olimpia Milano | 28c | 276.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.47 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Virtus Bologna | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Virtus Bologna | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Olimpia Milano | 28c | 183$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 145 | 42.1%61 W · 84 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fe…de26backed Virtus Bologna | 46c | 170$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Virtus Bologna | 47c | 117.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.02 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Olimpia Milano | 53c | 114.35$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Olimpia Milano | 53c | 111.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ff…b00abacked Virtus Bologna | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Olimpia Milano | 56c | 100.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Olimpia Milano | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 222 | 31.5%70 W · 152 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Virtus Bologna | 52c | 75.96$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.46 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Virtus Bologna | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +7.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Olimpia Milano | 37c | 59.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Olimpia Milano | 55c | 51.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Virtus Bologna | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…2dcfbacked Virtus Bologna | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Virtus Bologna | 52c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Olimpia Milano | 71c | 34.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 122 | 68.9%84 W · 38 L | +15.5wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Virtus Bologna | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Virtus Bologna | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4105…1128backed Olimpia Milano | 58c | 21.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.