Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9337c3e90deb6864372b3d12e74b20c6bc36d727d91bd50d1dbd8e794b1ed953
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,276
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,276 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Execration | 22c | 5,278$1,142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,142.49 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Execration | 20c | 3,999$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.89 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Team Spirit | 78c | 3,836$2,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.89 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Execration | 20c | 3,710$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.52 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Execration | 21c | 3,550$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.94 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…0c4bbacked Execration | 19c | 3,000$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.05 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…47f4backed Team Spirit | 78c | 2,579$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.07 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Spirit | 78c | 1,940$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.79 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Execration | 21c | 1,674$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.86 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Team Spirit | 78c | 1,619$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.73 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Execration | 28c | 1,248$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…1bb9backed Execration | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 568 | 48.8%277 W · 291 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Execration | 16c | 679.67$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 12c | 401.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed Execration | 26c | 377.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…98f9backed Team Spirit | 77c | 260.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Execration | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit | 74c | 177.17$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…37e7backed Team Spirit | 75c | 117.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcf…9f7dbacked Team Spirit | 76c | 113.57$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Execration | 19c | 100.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Execration | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Execration | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…aefdbacked Team Spirit | 79c | 95.52$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc0…a854backed Team Spirit | 70c | 91.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Team Spirit | 77c | 70.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed Team Spirit | 77c | 57.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 316 | 59.8%189 W · 127 L | +18.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Execration | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Team Spirit | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Team Spirit | 74c | 22.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Team Spirit | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.