Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa930823d806b8e7ebfb17e1b00e9c0429395cbf15b1f6efe67277af97ff01a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,097
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,097 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Execration | 22c | 3,274$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.44 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Execration | 26c | 3,105$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.19 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Spirit | 71c | 3,000$2,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit | 64c | 2,836$1,813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.05 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Execration | 25c | 2,544$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.81 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Execration | 28c | 2,356$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.26 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f04…5fc4backed Execration | 35c | 1,488$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.43 | 315 | 45.4%143 W · 172 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Execration | 16c | 1,418$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.81 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a97…66f5backed Team Spirit | 74c | 965.15$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.19 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…9390backed Execration | 47c | 821.28$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386 | 92 | 54.3%50 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…98f9backed Team Spirit | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Spirit | 65c | 281.66$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed Execration | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Team Spirit | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7903backed Execration | 36c | 240$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…63f6backed Execration | 26c | 215$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc165…61a9backed Team Spirit | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked Team Spirit | 71c | 150.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 229 | 54.1%124 W · 105 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Team Spirit | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…37e7backed Team Spirit | 71c | 124$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Team Spirit | 72c | 113$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 144 | 53.5%77 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Team Spirit | 79c | 101$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaae…ec88backed Team Spirit | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Execration | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Team Spirit | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Team Spirit | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaa…cd5fbacked Team Spirit | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…a35cbacked Execration | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 135 | 40.7%55 W · 80 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Execration | 25c | 40.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Team Spirit | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Team Spirit | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…dfa4backed Team Spirit | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Team Spirit | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…7a34backed Team Spirit | 76c | 15.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Execration - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.