Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93392a77501ec99814d55a81c931b4547de3665249bb9c3f67ccac5d1e7db16a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f3c…2f57backed Yes | 42c | 9,559$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,572.76 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 58c | 7,843$4,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,512.38 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 2,345$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked No | 58c | 1,442$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$837.4 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 54c | 399.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d63…0b78backed Yes | 71c | 276.79$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 45c | 273.62$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.53 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc66b…1435backed Yes | 45c | 204.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aab…15c5backed Yes | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 38c | 200$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 68c | 196.16$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes | 66c | 190.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 56c | 161.56$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e19…1495backed Yes | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.89 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1229…84c1backed Yes | 46c | 104.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6158…81bcbacked No | 54c | 99.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd10e…18dfbacked Yes | 46c | 96.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 61c | 78.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…5692backed Yes | 42c | 72.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 62c | 63.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x834f…266ebacked No | 62c | 60.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Yes | 45c | 50.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.03 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Yes | 63c | 49.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 39c | 48.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Yes | 62c | 47.28$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 55c | 43.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…6592backed Yes | 44c | 43.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 63c | 43.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 39c | 43.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…3f86backed Yes | 42c | 42.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 53cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 46c | 42.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed No | 38c | 40.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8943…6c65backed No | 62c | 40.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5545…9d86backed No | 62c | 38.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed No | 55c | 34.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa18d…e718backed Yes | 65c | 32.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…c8ccbacked Yes | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 55c | 30.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked No | 55c | 28.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked No | 55c | 26.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked No | 56c | 25.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…9d57backed No | 55c | 23.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked No | 55c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…8319backed Yes | 70c | 21.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22e8…8435backed No | 55c | 21.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Yes | 52c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 54c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Yes | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce5…af2ebacked No | 55c | 19.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.