Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb7f4ff7e6ba68123ff4cac7db7e8bfa1a4d046112a6b225d513f5dd569f0979
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,794
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 19c | 4,678$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.83 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 19c | 3,005$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.48 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 73c | 2,281$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.8 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…0b06backed Over | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +154.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 21c | 1,250$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 18c | 1,056$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.16 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -6.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 10c | 709.5$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.95 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd181…5136backed Over | 30c | 635.08$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 25c | 451.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 79c | 409.21$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.99 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 79c | 408.01$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 79c | 408.01$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 18c | 264.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 17c | 259.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 19c | 250.37$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 80c | 224.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Under | 80c | 224.76$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…493bbacked Under | 73c | 196.76$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 17c | 186.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 77c | 164.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 77c | 164.09$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…c5e3backed Under | 76c | 158.64$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 75c | 137.03$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…1df8backed Over | 19c | 105.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f26…b8ccbacked Under | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Over | 27c | 74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Under | 71c | 72.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…68ecbacked Under | 71c | 34.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +118.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked Under | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…5692backed Under | 80c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.