Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18f5dd7b8f370e73d5e37237881a598be389ef18c0344341d0a950727dd85d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 29c | 5,489$1,584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,583.95 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Over | 75c | 4,444$3,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 28c | 3,671$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…f6dcbacked Over | 75c | 3,556$2,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.91 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 28c | 3,095$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$854.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 58c | 1,500$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 68c | 1,316$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.24 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…f02abacked Over | 76c | 1,292$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 1,038$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Under | 34c | 999.97$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 36c | 896.48$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.8 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 65c | 750.06$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.48 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc333…05a5backed Over | 66c | 704.33$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 66c | 455.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Under | 4c | 439.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8193…8c82backed Over | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 341.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…8fd8backed Over | 60c | 325.33$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.13 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 66c | 296.85$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 75c | 262.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 66c | 259.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65a0…2a86backed Over | 72c | 255.04$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 34c | 223.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…4f06backed Over | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under | 33c | 157.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.11 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 65c | 150.62$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 66c | 148.42$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.46 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7409…65a6backed Over | 72c | 137.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 35c | 131.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 34c | 124.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.67 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 34c | 120.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 36c | 120.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…b729backed Over | 57c | 107.67$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Under | 32c | 100.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.29 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 66c | 97.96$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…cac7backed Over | 66c | 96.1$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bf…9ac0backed Over | 60c | 81.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…1df8backed Under | 26c | 59.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…8320backed Over | 57c | 51.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Over | 66c | 50.46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241e…04cbbacked Over | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb992…0838backed Over | 75c | 49.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b894backed Over | 74c | 41.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 28c | 36.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 34c | 31.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 35c | 30.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69f…1cacbacked Over | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e4…fb60backed Over | 66c | 29.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 68c | 28.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7335…dd65backed Over | 68c | 24.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 67c | 22.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4703…27bebacked Over | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…fd5bbacked Over | 64c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…c7acbacked Over | 66c | 19.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…2cd0backed Over | 75c | 14.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-1.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin (-2.5)FC St. Pauli 1910 won
- Spread: FC St. Pauli 1910 (-1.5)1. FC Union Berlin won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.