TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,097
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$93,217

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,097 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 185 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over39c14,905$5,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,787.4910041%41 W · 59 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c13,130$7,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,387.863,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under61c10,000$6,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,899.9816647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over47c9,000$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2503953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+20.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under60c8,074$4,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,248.992,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00a0…bf76backed Over33c7,346$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.43740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under58c6,897$4,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,873.5148141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf78…7736backed Under47c5,775$2,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,062.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under63c4,451$2,787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.261,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked Over39c3,458$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.795541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6204…0b06backed Over47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+154.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa396…0019backed Over22c2,884$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.751625%4 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under76c1,599$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.441,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under73c1,594$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.2348658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3520…1fa0backed Over51c1,256$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.61020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-2.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under56c1,234$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.4118644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Under61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3905133.3%17 W · 34 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-22%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Over50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked Under62c999.98$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.99728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick50cpaid-52.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd91a…211cbacked Over29c990.41$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.225024%12 W · 38 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under44c959.09$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.09450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d4…7a70backed Over31c927.68$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Under61c915.68$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.614055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Under62c788.06$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.4618759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over35c764.12$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6210026%26 W · 74 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Over54c720.75$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.24656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under61c716.15$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.31,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over36c673.12$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3224132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under61c576.35$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.5429855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over49c571.37$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.8933938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over39c494.05$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6810554.3%57 W · 48 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa46d…d8e5backed Under61c420$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.81266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+38.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Under49c416.54$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.426543.1%28 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under60c409.54$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.23961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Over42c402.17$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.914916.3%8 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e19…1495backed Over49c395.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.882373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick62cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Over51c388.24$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over48c386.73$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over38c380.05$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.427458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd871…6bbabacked Over47c379.99$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.61553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+55.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd810…2eb8backed Under61c370$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.32850%14 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…4806backed Over55c353.82$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+24.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe735…4198backed Under61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666b…d240backed Under61c300$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd147…ecbdbacked Over35c299.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1067646.1%35 W · 41 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7ee3…4095backed Over38c288.84$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40bf…8bdcbacked Over55c271.57$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0542…e195backed Over56c260.79$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick37cpaid+128.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5545…9d86backed Under78c244.41$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.97850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over40c241$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0e7…3335backed Over67c239.09$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.196366.7%42 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Over42c229.81$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.521747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-7.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under61c222.18$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.72785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick60cpaid+42.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Under58c218.07$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.844971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5976…7f3fbacked Over48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.88540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Under62c200.14$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.533161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6a…8aa7backed Under61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5660…1707backed Under61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x447d…bd4abacked Over49c197.84$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.943234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe761…8a64backed Under60c195.05$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.02955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+13.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x482c…cbe8backed Under66c192.97$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.491957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick67cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over39c192.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.152951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.06633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-48.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd06f…0263backed Over48c188.2$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.43475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+39.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Under61c180.33$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.026860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa853…58a9backed Over14c179.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.98366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick21cpaid+175.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac7…c99abacked Over55c176.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.31172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick54cpaid+50.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f22…2935backed Under56c173.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.52050%10 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under56c173.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.57450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4fc…e772backed Under57c172.19$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.773360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7e…d633backed Under45c171.91$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under60c171$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.415747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Under60c167.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.773655.6%20 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over38c161.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5611060%66 W · 44 L+13.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe689…b81abacked Under62c157.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.89366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae7b…aec1backed Under62c156.88$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.291963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Over53c155.24$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.6270%0 W · 7 L-3.6wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under57c150$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4720645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Over38c150$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed Under60c149.83$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.651464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…860fbacked Over53c149.35$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.741844.4%8 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick57cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5694…7f3dbacked Over28c144.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd208…cbcdbacked Under60c143.31$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.462759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Under59c136.44$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.872853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5f…849cbacked Over40c134.96$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over36c133.31$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5512635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28e8…6080backed Under61c124.12$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.412450%12 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…46e5backed Over37c122.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+58.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Under64c108.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x56c2…abcbbacked Under45c107.44$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.092171.4%15 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x25e3…b729backed Over54c106.24$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.37862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0954…012abacked Over47c103$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.413158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x811c…fd36backed Over37c101.42$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.532755.6%15 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over58c100.84$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4919055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under60c100.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.169838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x02bc…1fd2backed Under61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396442.2%27 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under54c99.92$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.381,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over53c98.76$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4810863%68 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over47c96.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.511450%7 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c57…40febacked Under61c96.69$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.711782.4%14 W · 3 L+5.4wins+0.32per pick51cpaid+61.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.