Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Belmont Bruins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x934ed4256af1c3f4ef6e32071c075be6bc7703f8891e0b64dc020ad33e683301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Belmont Bruinsof Illinois State Redbirds, Belmont Bruins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Belmont Bruins | 62c | 1,491$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.77 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Illinois State Redbirds | 36c | 940.68$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.47 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Illinois State Redbirds | 10c | 725.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 940 | 36.9%347 W · 593 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Illinois State Redbirds | 38c | 493$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.34 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Illinois State Redbirds | 6c | 468.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…2e45backed Illinois State Redbirds | 17c | 377.33$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Belmont Bruins | 71c | 366.2$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.2 | 453 | 51.4%233 W · 220 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Illinois State Redbirds | 39c | 234.05$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.26 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…bba8backed Illinois State Redbirds | 43c | 176$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 146 | 43.2%63 W · 83 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d7a…416fbacked Belmont Bruins | 74c | 164.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Illinois State Redbirds | 34c | 160$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Illinois State Redbirds | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 192 | 38.5%74 W · 118 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed Belmont Bruins | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 480 | 51%245 W · 235 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bc…963cbacked Belmont Bruins | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Belmont Bruinsthis page
- Illinois State Redbirds vs. Belmont Bruins: O/U 151.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.