Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Clara Tauson vs Zeynep Sonmez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9373a38856c5483c31a6822b25f81367b5179e9553bba8ced19891305a3aa0cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonmezof Tauson, Sonmez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,580
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sonmez | 33c | 4,972$1,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,343.09 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4992…6f5cbacked Tauson | 73c | 1,980$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Tauson | 74c | 1,953$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.53 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sonmez | 35c | 1,947$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,255.93 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Tauson | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonmez | 53c | 1,631$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.69 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed Tauson | 65c | 1,214$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.61 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Tauson | 42c | 650$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.2 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd94b…d34abacked Tauson | 70c | 649.49$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Tauson | 53c | 633.06$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.52 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Sonmez | 48c | 444$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.88 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Tauson | 47c | 422.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Tauson | 52c | 401.92$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x010c…e732backed Tauson | 42c | 235.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Tauson | 43c | 220$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.8 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sonmez | 40c | 211.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Tauson | 49c | 206$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Tauson | 39c | 202.56$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Tauson | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Tauson | 58c | 142$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.02 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Sonmez | 23c | 128.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.86 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -9.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Tauson | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Sonmez | 40c | 44.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sonmez | 24c | 42.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Sonmez | 31c | 40.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Sonmez | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…a0f7backed Tauson | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.