Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Evansville Aces vs. Murray State Racers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9379460c7189bb7f55e22230721aa6bc5fcc54e8bb672ae030e4c5ed1f65de0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murray State Racersof Evansville Aces, Murray State Racers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Evansville Aces | 8c | 3,946$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.66 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b4…7730backed Evansville Aces | 13c | 2,572$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Evansville Aces | 25c | 1,081$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.13 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Murray State Racers | 76c | 897.86$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.82 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Evansville Aces | 9c | 751.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…e82abacked Evansville Aces | 19c | 533.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 434 | 50%217 W · 217 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Murray State Racers | 65c | 518.26$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.53 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Evansville Aces | 10c | 504.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 97 | 11.3%11 W · 86 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5c…a5debacked Evansville Aces | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Evansville Aces | 21c | 400$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.3 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Murray State Racers | 78c | 308$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Evansville Aces | 11c | 299.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…fb12backed Evansville Aces | 11c | 299.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Evansville Aces | 11c | 238$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Murray State Racers | 80c | 216.75$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Evansville Aces | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Evansville Aces | 33c | 191$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 497 | 47.5%236 W · 261 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Evansville Aces | 21c | 179.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Evansville Aces | 26c | 172.01$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Evansville Aces | 10c | 149.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,152 | 48.9%563 W · 589 L | +3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Evansville Aces | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f7…9b3dbacked Evansville Aces | 17c | 117.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df1…11fcbacked Evansville Aces | 12c | 109.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Evansville Aces | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 30.2%45 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Murray State Racers | 77c | 83.97$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 716 | 55.3%396 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Evansville Aces | 16c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Murray State Racers | 71c | 73.68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.37 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Murray State Racers | 78c | 71.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Evansville Aces | 19c | 57.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Evansville Aces | 28c | 46.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Evansville Aces vs. Murray State Racersthis page
- Evansville Aces vs. Murray State Racers: O/U 153.5Over won
- Spread: Murray State Racers (-14.5)Evansville Aces won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.