Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9394be573cc7231ca5a6a189591fc36d8a7dc299b332bf73d5df6c38292c136b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3240…f6ebbacked Yes | 46c | 738.61$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 56c | 323.94$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 310$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 57c | 288.96$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.93 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 50c | 280.41$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.89 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 59c | 231.61$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.64 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 45c | 218.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.13 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 166.6$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 38c | 160.09$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 60c | 147.44$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 138.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 38c | 132$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.84 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 44c | 126.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.26 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 113.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 112.15$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 34c | 99.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 62c | 84.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 43c | 82.83$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 81.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 80.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 51c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 72.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 54c | 60.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 42c | 58.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 52.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 47c | 52.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…56b7backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 52c | 49.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 55c | 49.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.61 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked Yes | 41c | 46.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 27c | 45.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 54c | 44.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 44.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 38c | 44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 43c | 42.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 41.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 35.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 32.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 48c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 54c | 31.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 51c | 30.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 75c | 30.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 43c | 30.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 41c | 28.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 40c | 28.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 25.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 55c | 25.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 57c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 59c | 22.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 48c | 22.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 77c | 21.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa164…1405backed Yes | 73c | 18.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 60c | 17.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 68c | 15.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.