Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0f5bdf36ed8496a682d1216ad9c2c88a5b024c1e3a97611b274332a1d5026d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 531.81$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.87 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 34c | 241.47$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 46c | 146.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.24 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 131.6$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 119.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 10c | 113.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 67c | 110.91$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 101.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 94.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed No | 78c | 93.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 68c | 93.08$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 33c | 84.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 40c | 75.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…1c49backed Yes | 32c | 62.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 59.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 42c | 59.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 74c | 58.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 67c | 57.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 32c | 53.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fef…816bbacked No | 68c | 52.9$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 36c | 52.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 52.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 51.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 65c | 47.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 47.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 63c | 45.62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 31c | 42.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 36c | 41.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 62c | 37.17$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 30c | 36.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 66c | 36.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked Yes | 34c | 35.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 65c | 35.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 35c | 35.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 32c | 35.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 59c | 35.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 54c | 35.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 65c | 34.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 32c | 34.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 59c | 34.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 54c | 28.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 37c | 28.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4612…d575backed No | 70c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 94 | 70.2%66 W · 28 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 68c | 27.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 57c | 25.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a86…84ecbacked No | 71c | 23.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 465 | 49.9%232 W · 233 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 67c | 22.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 64c | 18.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 60c | 17.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 17.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 64c | 16.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 70c | 14.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.