Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93cb43982d9c81ef7f979b07e9d1dcdfd5a7492b3e5518c59a216907c0681dd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,829
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 20c | 261.39$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 219.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 211.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 78c | 196.06$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 22c | 174.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 22c | 157.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 156.17$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 151.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.02 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 79c | 138.12$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 22c | 136.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x97ef…245dbacked Yes | 15c | 132$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 120$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 79c | 112.91$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 90.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 27c | 89.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 37c | 79.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 24c | 72.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 73c | 71.22$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 73c | 71.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 33c | 70.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39f3…74c9backed Yes | 24c | 64.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 17c | 59.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…647bbacked Yes | 43c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 54c | 55.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.35 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 34c | 53.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 53.61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 52.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 76c | 52.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 67c | 52.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 74c | 42.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 42.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 29c | 41.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 64c | 35.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b33…9f80backed Yes | 66c | 34.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0299…475fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6300…41adbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked Yes | 38c | 28.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 28.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 76c | 26.92$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…3e25backed Yes | 52c | 22.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 71c | 21.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 73c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 74c | 20.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.