Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55c5f87e2bb2a7771cd60a2461cf73e5c5a2cf87267fe61e1035a209f39decea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 646.39$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 420.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 36c | 320$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.09 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 233$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.44 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked No | 49c | 183.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 26c | 172.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 47c | 147.38$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 67c | 140.01$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 79c | 129.2$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.03 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 38c | 116$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 78c | 112.07$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 77c | 104.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 21c | 93.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 72c | 87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 14c | 80.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 76.76$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 75.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 35c | 62.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 24c | 57.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.21 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 57.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 65c | 47.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 41.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ff…f3e6backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.39per pick | 64cpaid | -57%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 29.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 49c | 27.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 27.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d42…a046backed No | 42c | 25.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe05b…6d6ebacked Yes | 54c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 22.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 17.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 78°F or higher on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.