Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93ee17f0e6b124e5e9a8ca7f8e6ba9fe6c2e6064bee8402e3a09bcc9e400d6b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8847…262dbacked No | 6c | 483.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 427.75$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 33c | 200$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.82 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 55c | 174.14$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.99 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 64c | 159.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 157$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 54c | 147.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.36 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 146.51$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 31c | 115.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 54c | 113.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 13c | 103$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 77c | 62.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 58.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 57.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.1 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 67c | 55.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 62c | 50.08$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 36c | 47.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 33c | 44.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 43c | 44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 39.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 53c | 35.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 34.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 75c | 33.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 32.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf444…8d4abacked No | 68c | 28.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 49 | 71.4%35 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 72cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 60c | 27.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 24.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 61c | 24.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ce…3c70backed No | 67c | 22.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 74c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 64c | 18.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…cc16backed No | 75c | 15.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 35°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 36°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.