Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open (W): Swiatek vs. Keys
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93f42263971abb137fe7ffd4db95852f7da248372449c21d586858ff2ea8ee11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Keysof Swiatek, Keys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $67,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Keys | 14c | 8,054$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,895.84 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Keys | 17c | 7,673$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,366.19 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Keys | 18c | 4,006$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,300.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93b…ae97backed Swiatek | 77c | 2,720$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Keys | 34c | 1,390$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.62 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4dd…3c12backed Keys | 18c | 1,135$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +183.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Keys | 21c | 962.87$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.67 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Keys | 24c | 759.24$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.74 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Keys | 38c | 514.76$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.15 | 383 | 48%184 W · 199 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6150…13f7backed Swiatek | 78c | 512.82$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.5wins | -0.50per pick | 64cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Keys | 26c | 408.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.91 | 143 | 45.5%65 W · 78 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked Keys | 10c | 400$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed Keys | 17c | 216.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.67 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Keys | 17c | 199.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.98 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fb…8179backed Swiatek | 50c | 197.9$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.95 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Keys | 12c | 161.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.32 | 120 | 38.3%46 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Swiatek | 65c | 153.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…dee6backed Swiatek | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Keys | 34c | 58.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c54…cc1ebacked Swiatek | 62c | 55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…3a5dbacked Swiatek | 71c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Swiatek | 76c | 26.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…9b0fbacked Swiatek | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.