MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94055e9d7f589dd3bd957bf9d91010e1c92504153e506a18801071c0b45cd1fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago Cubsof Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,953 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Milwaukee Brewers | 16c | 1,954$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.17 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb4…ca9cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 975.08$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Chicago Cubs | 60c | 968.21$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Chicago Cubs | 46c | 705.19$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.8 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 418.94$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.58 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Chicago Cubs | 78c | 368.33$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae84…fd9dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 332.08$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 288.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292e…172cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Milwaukee Brewers | 54c | 156$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Chicago Cubs | 50c | 120.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 23c | 113.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Milwaukee Brewers | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Chicago Cubs | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Chicago Cubs | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 312 | 50%156 W · 156 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66dd…893dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Chicago Cubs | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Milwaukee Brewers | 52c | 32.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Chicago Cubs | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 51c | 29.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Chicago Cubs | 47c | 23.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.