Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94139b702f23fa0d544570dd54f16f7b2dbb9dd0ad1bbb39a486f62ae11787b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Vici Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,382
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Vici Gaming | 74c | 1,103$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.25 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Nigma Galaxy | 65c | 750$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.4 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Vici Gaming | 74c | 723.73$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.03 | 194 | 60.3%117 W · 77 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 627$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.98 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Vici Gaming | 41c | 607.4$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.83 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 600$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 401.85$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.37 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4d…4065backed Nigma Galaxy | 52c | 309.3$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.81 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f88…c6e8backed Vici Gaming | 74c | 297.02$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.72 | 123 | 35.8%44 W · 79 L | -13.7wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 240.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.85 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Nigma Galaxy | 25c | 217.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…cc1ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 207.89$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.89 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Vici Gaming | 74c | 206.45$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.25 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Vici Gaming | 44c | 170.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.51 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Vici Gaming | 50c | 162.36$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.03 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Vici Gaming | 55c | 150.12$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 120$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.6 | 227 | 38.3%87 W · 140 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Nigma Galaxy | 63c | 118.39$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.25 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Vici Gaming | 36c | 111.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 109.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Vici Gaming | 75c | 108$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5522…c807backed Vici Gaming | 72c | 103.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1413…184abacked Vici Gaming | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Vici Gaming | 74c | 78.6$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…1ce7backed Vici Gaming | 72c | 78$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Vici Gaming | 72c | 74.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.53 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…a5bebacked Nigma Galaxy | 28c | 63.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Vici Gaming | 37c | 54.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Vici Gaming | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed Vici Gaming | 48c | 44.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x821f…4774backed Vici Gaming | 74c | 42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 29c | 41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.11 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Nigma Galaxy | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Nigma Galaxy | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 213 | 28.2%60 W · 153 L | -16.0wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group StageNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.