Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d359272da86a7d5fe305743230da9ad3a1b56d5ae926ef77238794b06f87b3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c71…c0e5backed Under | 59c | 1,800$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.99 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Over | 41c | 1,377$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.92 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Under | 50c | 436$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Over | 50c | 240$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 40c | 223.61$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.34 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…def2backed Under | 50c | 209.72$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.86 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked Over | 50c | 170$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 60c | 165.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 41c | 155$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 41c | 150$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.25 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 42c | 124.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 41c | 121.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bc…4347backed Under | 57c | 87.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 50c | 81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 45c | 63.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 217 | 42.9%93 W · 124 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 41c | 57.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…41f5backed Over | 32c | 55.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Under | 51c | 41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 50c | 39.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Over | 50c | 37.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e1…489cbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 49c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 38c | 28.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 28.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 116 | 49.1%57 W · 59 L | +11.5wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85bc…1909backed Under | 57c | 24.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over | 43c | 23.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 57 | 66.7%38 W · 19 L | +8.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…8ffdbacked Under | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8966…363fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group StageNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.