Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x941ccad91a96d112cd3ec0cecb53cf379070800c1f0d7915607964b62c07dd23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALUof BALU, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,367
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,367 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad85…c6bdbacked summer bear | 0c | 4,051$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed summer bear | 50c | 1,594$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed summer bear | 70c | 1,200$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.94 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked summer bear | 56c | 858.55$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.6 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb55…51ddbacked BALU | 49c | 807.11$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.45 | 359 | 60.4%217 W · 142 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked summer bear | 56c | 540.18$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked BALU | 52c | 488.75$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.43 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked BALU | 47c | 421.17$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.17 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb209…b744backed summer bear | 49c | 403$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.07 | 77 | 33.8%26 W · 51 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 46c | 347.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.58 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…e7dabacked BALU | 45c | 335$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.65 | 310 | 55.2%171 W · 139 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BALU | 30c | 316.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.62 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked BALU | 46c | 288.4$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa917…4e8dbacked BALU | 48c | 259$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.68 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked BALU | 33c | 256.82$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.29 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed BALU | 38c | 249.98$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.99 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked BALU | 43c | 227.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.46 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed BALU | 44c | 225.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…9b3dbacked BALU | 45c | 197$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0612…559abacked BALU | 46c | 166.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked BALU | 51c | 137.24$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed summer bear | 46c | 130.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked BALU | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed BALU | 30c | 64.12$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed summer bear | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 204 | 48%98 W · 106 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked summer bear | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b382backed BALU | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.23 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed summer bear | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed summer bear | 62c | 43.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed BALU | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea51…0f69backed summer bear | 61c | 35.06$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed BALU | 54c | 34.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79ac…9c87backed BALU | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 80 | 40%32 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed summer bear | 60c | 28.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked BALU | 42c | 24.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed summer bear | 68c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group ABALU won
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
- Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)BALU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.