Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a3bd17cabb840af7ad45344ba31b0156cac31bce0ad80a43fdb1c091b151293
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BALUof BALU, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,296
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfab…f067backed summer bear | 67c | 900.92$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked BALU | 50c | 900.63$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.16 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked summer bear | 64c | 749.33$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.57 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed summer bear | 76c | 500$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed summer bear | 54c | 370.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 67c | 312.84$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.05 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked BALU | 31c | 303.97$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.82 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed BALU | 38c | 294.14$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.06 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f40…c8ffbacked BALU | 23c | 170$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.18 | 310 | 52.6%163 W · 147 L | +15.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked BALU | 24c | 166.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.76 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd12…0b88backed BALU | 28c | 163.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed BALU | 34c | 155.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked summer bear | 70c | 151.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 149 | 43%64 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed summer bear | 50c | 150.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf34b…bcb3backed summer bear | 53c | 150$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 583 | 56.8%331 W · 252 L | +28.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17cd…7423backed BALU | 24c | 143.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257e…ca61backed summer bear | 73c | 126.36$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.68 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked BALU | 17c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked BALU | 37c | 90.24$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.85 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca8…7e67backed BALU | 25c | 89.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed BALU | 24c | 65.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed summer bear | 53c | 60.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed summer bear | 63c | 57.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed BALU | 22c | 56.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.72 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e99…2229backed BALU | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed BALU | 30c | 51.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…71e0backed BALU | 25c | 47.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed summer bear | 30c | 36.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked BALU | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked summer bear | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 148 | 48%71 W · 77 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4270…6168backed summer bear | 63c | 28.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed summer bear | 54c | 26.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed summer bear | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group Athis page
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 1 Winnersummer bear won
- Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerBALU won
- Game Handicap: SB (-1.5) vs BALU (+1.5)BALU won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.