Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9440a9d77cdef134ab35055f8d55ddebdff8a5f12bac8c45b00accbce98dadde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nemiga Gamingof Nemiga Gaming, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,471
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,471 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nemiga Gaming | 58c | 1,749$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.74 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2761…4d95backed L1ga Team | 42c | 1,456$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.93 | 446 | 45.7%204 W · 242 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Nemiga Gaming | 53c | 1,160$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.8 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked Nemiga Gaming | 78c | 999.75$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.12 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 996$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked L1ga Team | 49c | 933.18$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.95 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked L1ga Team | 34c | 839.34$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.06 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 800$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 50c | 755.35$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.43 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked L1ga Team | 14c | 676.64$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.83 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked L1ga Team | 50c | 569.15$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.54 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16db…8d0fbacked L1ga Team | 50c | 489.99$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.99 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed L1ga Team | 48c | 393.82$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed L1ga Team | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed L1ga Team | 34c | 287.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.85 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed L1ga Team | 52c | 266.11$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.38 | 194 | 58.8%114 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed L1ga Team | 54c | 226.41$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 227 | 52.9%120 W · 107 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Nemiga Gaming | 47c | 204.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.87 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.49 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…0bcebacked L1ga Team | 47c | 165.51$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Nemiga Gaming | 48c | 139.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team | 40c | 112.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed L1ga Team | 38c | 74.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked L1ga Team | 41c | 69.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked L1ga Team | 35c | 56.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed L1ga Team | 53c | 46.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…55c2backed L1ga Team | 41c | 43.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nemiga Gaming | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Nemiga Gaming | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…19a4backed L1ga Team | 42c | 29.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -9.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed L1ga Team | 47c | 24.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked Nemiga Gaming | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 PlayoffsL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs L1ga Team - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.