Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Will Michigan advance to the National Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9445fefd8b6944487d34d4485a38348373d7ee66b234b13aa454de20bd5d2b4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfea3…d227backed No | 50c | 1,036$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.32 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 50c | 972.99$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.49 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 51c | 583.15$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.38 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 49c | 433.53$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.98 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Yes | 49c | 246.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.55 | 40 | 15%6 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 27c | 215.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.74 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +8.7wins | +0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…0a85backed No | 51c | 112$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 52c | 101.54$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…cd5dbacked Yes | 43c | 86.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 133 | 42.1%56 W · 77 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…4dc6backed No | 45c | 84.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 316 | 46.8%148 W · 168 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked Yes | 49c | 75.69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 122 | 27.9%34 W · 88 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 38c | 34.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c69…b190backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michigan advance to the National Championship?this page
- Will Akron advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Alabama advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Arizona advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Arkansas advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Duke advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Florida advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Houston advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Illinois advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Iowa State advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Iowa advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Kansas advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Michigan State advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Nebraska advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Purdue advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will Tennessee advance to the National Championship?No won
- Will UConn advance to the National Championship?Yes won
- Will Utah State advance to the National Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.