Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x944a6855fef21bba7c8b87c5dc63f729ee2af5c2b67348bc8cc43fd305f3cac1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 62c | 1,300$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…e27dbacked Over | 39c | 600$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked Over | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad9…0eaebacked Under | 60c | 255.75$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 93 | 44.1%41 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Under | 51c | 250.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 44c | 220.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.45 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Over | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Over | 34c | 117.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 68c | 112.71$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Under | 63c | 99.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.49 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Under | 79c | 69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Over | 49c | 63.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Over | 48c | 54.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Over | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 40c | 45.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Under | 66c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…bd2dbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 300 | 54.7%164 W · 136 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 915 | 53.3%488 W · 427 L | +48.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Under | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 1 WinnerGrind Back won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back - Game 2 WinnerGrind Back won
- Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs Grind Back (+1.5)Grind Back won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.