Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x944c07dca55b99374ef47307082836a747bdd92447d0702d772a084d4c3ceb60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,992
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,029
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,992 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 20c | 442.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.77 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 150$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…cbc2backed Yes | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 58c | 96.32$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.32 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…38e2backed Yes | 45c | 90$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 48c | 90$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 64c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 41c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xce80…7043backed No | 48c | 58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 55c | 56.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 42c | 54.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…8921backed Yes | 53c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 48c | 49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc272…bfb1backed Yes | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3011…01bebacked No | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa781…566dbacked Yes | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x451d…f2b0backed No | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36e…ca8dbacked No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…0802backed Yes | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c52…ca27backed No | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb36e…db4abacked No | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0d…4d64backed Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe461…fbeabacked Yes | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aef…123bbacked No | 48c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…277cbacked No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe28…0ad9backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4172…0faabacked No | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 47c | 24.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d8…7d2dbacked Yes | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cd…d48dbacked Yes | 52c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c49…221abacked Yes | 55c | 21.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7e…5524backed Yes | 52c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 65c | 20.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1e…d290backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 29°F or below on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 40°F or higher on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 34-35°F on February 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.