Champions League · resolved market
Real Madrid vs. Al Hilal: 4+ Goals Scored?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94529c8735e5c84f23782ddf410db5f30d9d10df85b07302b2685b1e91ba6abc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,515
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,565
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,515 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 49c | 8,430$4,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,111.23 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…ec2fbacked No | 54c | 8,388$4,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,854.02 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 50c | 7,183$3,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,593 | 219 | 38.4%84 W · 135 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Yes | 47c | 4,889$2,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,297.74 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 49c | 4,251$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.84 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…acb6backed No | 53c | 2,200$1,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 51c | 1,070$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.48 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdeb…1a50backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…8c4dbacked Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 55c | 1,000$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.22 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Yes | 49c | 895.73$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.52 | 101 | 37.6%38 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6771…b783backed Yes | 50c | 772.9$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.04 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…cfc1backed Yes | 58c | 600.71$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…3b1bbacked Yes | 44c | 550.84$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a69…5a45backed Yes | 43c | 550$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 58c | 493.47$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.41 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 52c | 442.58$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.99 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked No | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Yes | 51c | 364.43$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 47c | 319.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed No | 50c | 245.6$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Yes | 52c | 190$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff92…f22cbacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 53c | 129$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.37 | 87 | 40.2%35 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +81%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Yes | 45c | 128.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d3…a515backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 48c | 99.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54d7…c74dbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 67c | 85.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked No | 48c | 84.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 54c | 56.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 228 | 47.8%109 W · 119 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 54c | 52.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 264 | 43.9%116 W · 148 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8b…4d01backed Yes | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed No | 66c | 44.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…b9b5backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…1acdbacked Yes | 54c | 42.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…330abacked Yes | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed No | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eab…89dcbacked Yes | 47c | 38.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…f9b4backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…58a0backed No | 50c | 36.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +147.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed No | 56c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yes | 47c | 29.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…c764backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…05b2backed Yes | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 155 | 38.1%59 W · 96 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.