MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94d9d8bf2bd2df51348e982831c8572d890f92d1af3be93192d327fc63ccf98f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,139
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 19,749$12,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,578 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 12,185$5,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,174.41 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 5,596$1,614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,982.21 | 132 | 62.9%83 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Miami Marlins | 35c | 5,453$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,529.34 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami Marlins | 28c | 2,941$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,105.37 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 2,817$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,962.94 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 2,310$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.22 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 1,443$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.17 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 1,280$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.62 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 1,170$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.55 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e3…ce1fbacked Miami Marlins | 42c | 1,100$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 785.04$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.86 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 782.41$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.09 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4769…2ea2backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 700$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 47cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 666$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.3 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed3…7008backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 600$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 592$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.92 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 465.98$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.41 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Miami Marlins | 44c | 458.04$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.64 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 406$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22c…4942backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 357.89$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa1…1b5fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 342.11$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Miami Marlins | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Miami Marlins | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Miami Marlins | 31c | 79.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.72 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf648…a6e7backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 38.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…c7a4backed Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 31.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x235a…2e57backed Miami Marlins | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.