NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ee93ac1554ad90b1b1dace3b9c95af44c4d76bbb8c57829390039053244eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canucksof Sabres, Canucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54fd…ae61backed Sabres | 41c | 3,000$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canucks | 58c | 2,051$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.7 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Canucks | 62c | 1,651$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.48 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Sabres | 37c | 1,229$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.29 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Canucks | 63c | 1,200$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Canucks | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 243 | 47.7%116 W · 127 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d9d…992bbacked Sabres | 42c | 599.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Sabres | 39c | 507.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Canucks | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Canucks | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…1ec7backed Sabres | 31c | 159.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canucks | 72c | 145.83$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Sabres | 38c | 143.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Canucks | 69c | 126.68$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.27 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Sabres | 28c | 99.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sabres | 28c | 69.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Canucks | 72c | 69.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Sabres | 28c | 52.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Canucks | 62c | 48.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed Canucks | 61c | 47.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Canucks | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Canucks | 69c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canucks | 72c | 29.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Canucks | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Canucks | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Sabres vs. CanucksSabres won
- Sabres vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Canucks (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.