NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1afd38f8bfd69ff685b6f6050101ac3289b75aab5780694c135d72a66759c910
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 42c | 5,600$2,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,363.72 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 56c | 4,368$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,928.31 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Over | 46c | 1,958$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.6 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Under | 54c | 1,574$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.07 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Under | 64c | 777.55$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.55 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 58c | 611$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.73 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 49c | 481.73$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.49 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -7.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Under | 66c | 455.84$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.84 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 51c | 425.73$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.61 | 728 | 47.9%349 W · 379 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Under | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 230 | 47.4%109 W · 121 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 348.66$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Over | 49c | 163.52$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.19 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 29c | 151.97$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 38c | 147.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…6953backed Under | 66c | 115.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8c…4bc2backed Under | 55c | 115.93$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.93 | 253 | 58.5%148 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 62c | 111.43$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.24 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 55c | 92.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 63c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…bacfbacked Over | 60c | 68.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Over | 44c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 232 | 49.1%114 W · 118 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…db58backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 72c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Over | 41c | 26.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Canucks: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. CanucksSabres won
- Spread: Canucks (-1.5)Sabres won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.