Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94f492fc8aa28331b8a0143ca0ed893a2ba85cb4703724e14665bdf1ddd4b9c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,971 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52ff…c670backed Yes | 36c | 2,660$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…cb45backed Yes | 36c | 2,614$941 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de9…f820backed No | 64c | 1,354$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8378…95ffbacked No | 64c | 1,350$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…445abacked No | 64c | 1,306$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…f84dbacked No | 64c | 1,264$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 1c | 1,047$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 29c | 317.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.66 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 70c | 277.53$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 272.82$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.77 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 29c | 243$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9d…5954backed No | 62c | 216.22$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.69 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 72c | 158.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 35c | 121.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 72c | 113.8$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 107.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 26c | 100.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 32c | 96.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 37c | 94.2$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 91.72$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 86.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 13c | 79.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 20c | 76.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 74.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 70c | 72.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 70c | 71.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 71.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 75c | 70.2$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 62c | 70$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 60c | 68.31$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 63.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 69c | 53.26$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 68c | 52.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 48.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 32c | 47.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 45.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 39c | 45.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 72c | 41.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 71c | 41.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 62c | 40.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6d…3a5abacked No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 29c | 37.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…861bbacked No | 74c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce94…c49cbacked Yes | 27c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 31c | 35.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 31.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 71c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 74c | 26.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 70c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -6.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 18.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 72c | 18.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 33°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.