Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62c9f0b957133f42e9b50998de6f7a5f7b919c1dc591c950688b457875b52a6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,159 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 8c | 473.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 70c | 406.85$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.61 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 349.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…ae7dbacked Yes | 12c | 329.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.71 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 8c | 308.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.02 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…bc9dbacked Yes | 7c | 267.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.43 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 24c | 228$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 224.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.58 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 224.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.9 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 219.96$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1927…9649backed Yes | 53c | 202.74$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.23 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 200.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 9c | 165$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.88 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 21c | 160.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.16 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 14c | 146.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.92 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 8c | 142.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.22 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 32c | 101.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.44 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 29c | 78.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.87 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 68.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e76…95cdbacked Yes | 30c | 62.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 48.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 40c | 37.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 73c | 29.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 80c | 27.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 54c | 20.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 33°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.