Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd360f308a107880b96c082c921fdea7c6ff7f747e0480242378330ea7a9672ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,467 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 0c | 10,820$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 333.21$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 332.24$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.13 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 15c | 295.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 243$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.26 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 191$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 74c | 143.83$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 57c | 141.99$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 74c | 141.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.52 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 55c | 140.61$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.91 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 46c | 136.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 63c | 121.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.91 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 26c | 115.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 67c | 104$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 37c | 96.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.77 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 60c | 94.4$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 89.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa785…acb6backed Yes | 47c | 89.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 25c | 81.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0122…2793backed Yes | 37c | 81.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 59c | 81.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 79.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 57c | 77.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 39c | 74.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0da…2342backed No | 72c | 67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 35c | 64.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed No | 77c | 63.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 25c | 58.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 62c | 58.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 52c | 56.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6866…6725backed Yes | 47c | 55.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 75c | 53.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 51c | 48.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 44c | 45.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…251abacked Yes | 28c | 40.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 64c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4d…2a1bbacked Yes | 38c | 39.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 54c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 57c | 34.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 65c | 30.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 57c | 29.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 71c | 29.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 52c | 28.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 72c | 27.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 26.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9009…acb2backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9575…0d20backed No | 55c | 23.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 67c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc1…b714backed No | 69c | 21.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…fa96backed No | 71c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 75cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…0c4ebacked No | 63c | 18.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd05…0e6ebacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 64c | 16.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…a418backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 33°F or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 34-35°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 36-37°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 38-39°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.