Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9510242cc15b084a816895f09859b9b3e65231f6daeca2a167d7e409851cc1a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 34c | 470.7$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.85 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…d8a0backed No | 10c | 338.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 159.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.14 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 50c | 142.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 140.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 93.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 62c | 88.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 87.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 38c | 67.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 62.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 62.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 31c | 54.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 76c | 52.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 55c | 52.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 32c | 48.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 77c | 42.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 67c | 41.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…2321backed Yes | 38c | 40.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 75c | 40.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 80c | 37.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 46c | 37.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 78c | 28.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 39c | 27.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 66c | 27.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 68c | 26.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 76c | 25.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 73c | 22.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x599f…3317backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 125 | 78.4%98 W · 27 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 75cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 80c | 19.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 16.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 70c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on August 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on August 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on August 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on August 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.