Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9525dc013f6b365edd9afdd8d70c2cda1c64ba103996429a46d48fcff262377d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,199 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 27c | 10,077$2,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720.79 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 73c | 10,059$7,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,715.85 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 1,706$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.12 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 17c | 1,249$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.63 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 27c | 1,111$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a0…5804backed Over | 23c | 1,063$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 26c | 475.28$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.2 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 71c | 421.5$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.65 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 30c | 398.55$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.56 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 27c | 357.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 73c | 245.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 30c | 197.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 78c | 165.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 20c | 153.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 31c | 135.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 124.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 123$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.27 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 17c | 105.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 23.1%21 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 29c | 97.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 68c | 95.38$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 68c | 58.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.83 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -9.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 25c | 48.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 73c | 36.32$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 69c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 44c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Under | 76c | 19.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.