Bundesliga · resolved market
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb69657d74dd29aac1d576bdb933bfda3672207e3a71f1b6716f4519e63003f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,111
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,111 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 11,722$6,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,218.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 50c | 7,476$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,735.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…df04backed Over | 52c | 2,673$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 59c | 2,235$1,327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.96 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,693$932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 43c | 1,400$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.33 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Over | 41c | 1,200$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 49c | 1,192$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.41 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 50c | 1,139$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.86 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 48c | 1,034$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.79 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 31c | 986.87$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 60c | 800$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 45c | 789.06$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.62 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…0f6abacked Over | 45c | 624.96$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.23 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 53c | 622.64$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Under | 32c | 333$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +83%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 46c | 260.87$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Over | 51c | 237.09$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.53 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 53c | 227.85$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 47c | 219.13$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed Over | 40c | 218.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…d5e6backed Over | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 46c | 183.54$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 48c | 179$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 40c | 165.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.77 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 49c | 153.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…c33bbacked Over | 30c | 144.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 135.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 116.33$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 40c | 115.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Over | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Over | 77c | 91.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…776ebacked Over | 47c | 84.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa209…d90ebacked Over | 44c | 83.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 51c | 81.11$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 47c | 76.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 52c | 59.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…8080backed Over | 50c | 56.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 37c | 55.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 52c | 53.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 50c | 39.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…41cbbacked Over | 52c | 39.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 49c | 36.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 44c | 36.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…434dbacked Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ce…ea8dbacked Over | 44c | 26.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.46per pick | 63cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 55c | 21.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb409…10b2backed Over | 66c | 18.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1093…d547backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 2.5this page
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 1.5Over won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 3.5Under won
- SV Darmstadt 98 vs. FC Schalke 04: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)SV Darmstadt 98 won
- Spread: SV Darmstadt 98 (-1.5)FC Schalke 04 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.