Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9525fb8461a44cc3fd8925d949ebcd19c7ad9cabcddb8c04098d1000ccb91ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mertensof Rybakina, Mertens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Mertens | 42c | 3,397$1,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,970.1 | 582 | 32%186 W · 396 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Rybakina | 58c | 3,389$1,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,965 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…063fbacked Rybakina | 10c | 1,122$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.22 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +4.9wins | +0.26per pick | 16cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Mertens | 51c | 1,121$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.99 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b9…4467backed Rybakina | 49c | 999.97$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.99 | 380 | 33.9%129 W · 251 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Mertens | 43c | 600$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x707b…69f2backed Rybakina | 57c | 524.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 311 | 46%143 W · 168 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Rybakina | 58c | 504.24$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.46 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Rybakina | 63c | 450$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Mertens | 37c | 402.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.65 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Mertens | 42c | 372$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.93 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…6137backed Rybakina | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47cd…5648backed Rybakina | 57c | 176$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Mertens | 42c | 169.48$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.59 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Rybakina | 56c | 151.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Mertens | 42c | 126.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Mertens | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Mertens | 51c | 95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Mertens | 44c | 64.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c82…5a52backed Rybakina | 58c | 60.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Rybakina | 67c | 59.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Mertens | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Rybakina | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 389 | 47.3%184 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…eb44backed Rybakina | 66c | 39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.74 | 103 | 48.5%50 W · 53 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Mertens | 34c | 39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Mertens | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eda…05ccbacked Rybakina | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Mertens vs RybakinaMertens won
- Wimbledon WTA: Elise Mertens vs Elena RybakinaElise Mertens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.